Jul 19 16:00

Sabermetics and racism

Here's Rob Neyer on the whole "Bill James is a racist" meme. Hint: He says it's not true.

Jul 19 16:00

Besides, it's bad music

Flipping it around tonight, I happened across the Faith Hill video for "Where the Lights Go Down."

It was on CMT, which supposedly stands for "Country Music Television."

Can somebody please tell me what is country about this song, this video or Faith Hill?

Jul 18 16:00

Object-Oriented Journalism

In a manner of speaking, I grew up as a reporter. That is how I spent, or misspent, my youth.

I grew up hearing that reporters should be objective, but that objectivity was impossible. The wink and the nod, of course, was that you couldn't help but be see a story through your own world view, which would inevitably taint how you presented the story. Of course, part of being an objective reporter, is never admitting to anybody, least of all yourself, that you are making subjective decisions about what to put in your story, how to weigh the value of certain facts and issues, and what turn of the phrase should be used to convey those facts.

This most subjective of exercises is referred to in the profession as the "editorial process."

Here's a little story to illustrate that point. Back in 1993 I was working for a California State Assemblyman named Tom Connolly. Now Mr. Connolly had once led a pretty wild life. Some of the facts of this life I knew and reported when he first ran for state Assembly in 1989. He had done cocaine excessively. What I didn't know, and never reported myself, was that his excess included spending so much money on white powder that he couldn't afford to pay his taxes. In no time, he ran up an $80,000 tab with the IRS (he also wasn't paying his child support, and this was also a new fact to me, but that isn't relevant to this vignette).

Tom decided to come clean with the voting public and admit all of his past misdeeds before the facts came out in a way that looked like he was trying to hide from his past.

One afternoon, Tom, myself and Union-Tribune political reporter Gerry Braun, sat down over chips and salsa and Tom talked. He revealed all. He held nothing back. He answered every question.

When the story came out the following Sunday, you would have thought Gerry Braun had uncovered all of this dirt on his own. The enterprising reporter.

I'm not saying he overtly claimed credit, but there wasn't a hint in the story that Tom came through of his own volition. The story was "objective," just not honest.

The story also contained this little gem about Tom's back taxes: "It is a debt he won't pay off in this century."

Was that sentence objective? Well, if objectivity is judged by being factually accurate, it was accurate. At the rate Tom was paying off his debt, he was scheduled to even the books with the IRS in 2001 or 2002. But as any writer knows, certain words and phrases have connotation as well as denotation. The connotation of "in this century" is something far greater than eight or nine years. The reader's mind can't help but leap 100 years ahead.

Tom complained to Gerry Braun about this creative turn of phrase, and Gerry just laughed it off. He wasn't bothered in the least that while factually accurate, he wasn't being totally fair. I was appalled. Still am.

That said, I'm sure there are several sources out there, including former sources who read this blog, who could accuse me of the same sort of reportorial slight of hand.

When you're in the business, you become inured to such subtle sins against objectivity. After all, objectivity, as we are taught, isn't really possible.

I've been thinking more and more about objectivity recently, but not in the context of journalism.

Objectivity has become a big part of my life. In my hobby, baseball, I've been studying the theories of Bill James, which is primarily about looking at the game without emotional attachments, just hard numbers. When you look at the Game as a matter of statistics -- and baseball reveals itself more through statistics than any other sport -- you begin to shun myth, conventional wisdom and partisan prejudices. The game becomes about performance, not appearances.

And as a web application developer, I've been studying object-oriented programming, which is all about breaking down processes into key components and dealing with those components in rational, logical order. There is no subjectivity in programming. The idea is to build efficient performance and it requires thorough and disciplined analysis of a problem.

The nexus between sabrematics and OOP is that both deal with what can be seen and held -- if not in the real world, at least in the mind's eye. Neither skill can be practiced successfully without a high level of detachment.

As I delve deeper into objectivity, I am beginning to wonder if the big lie isn't that journalists are objective when they aren't, but that objectivity is impossible.

Objectivity may be difficult, require discipline and practice, but in news reports it might be easier to obtain than most journalists think. And what it may require is thinking more like an OOP programmer, or maybe a sabrematician.

I'm in no position to put this revelation into practice and test the theory, I just throw the idea out for others to discuss and think about.

Here's an exercise for all of you reporters out there: The next time you sit down to write a story, instead of a traditional outline (if you outline your stories, which you should), model your story the way an OOP programmer would. Divide it into its class hierarchy. Figure out its objects, its states (how it exists) and its methods (behaviors, actions). Build your story around the objects, and make sure all states and methods are attributed. Every object should have at least one state and one method. This will help you, I think, see your story more objectively, and by including with every object a state and a method, you should ensure balance and fairness, and since the state and method rely on real, newsworthy objects, should help you keep your own states and methods out of the story. Finally, OOJ should help reporters focus just on the facts, analyze them deeply, and avoid the kind of subjective judgments that are more the product of laziness than good writing.

Here's a book on OOP to help.

BTW: Gerry Braun is now the writing coach for the San Diego Union-Tribune. That's probably a good place for a creative writer.

Jul 16 16:00

Bill James is not a racist

rickey hendersonFor most of this column, I'm kind of going, "uh?" (link sent to me by Steve Smith). It's something about race and baseball and how black kids don't get fair breaks, but meanders for a long time firming up that point.

Then I get to this:

It is usually the American-born blacks' records and place that are resented instead of celebrated. For example, it's the stolen base that is denigrated as a weapon by baseball sabermaticians like Bill James, at precisely the time when a Rickey Henderson steals 130 bases in a season. There are sour grapes when a baseball man uses stats to tell you a stolen base isn't important. Any time a baseball manager will give up an out for a base, as with a sac bunt or groundball to the right side, any time a base is so precious, then it goes without saying that the stolen base must be important. Not the CS, the caught stealing, or stats of success rates, but the stolen base itself.

OK, I think the point here is that Bill James is a racist. Why? Because Bill James doesn't value stolen bases enough and he did so at precisely the time when the best base stealer is black. I believe that logical fallacy is called "post hoc" -- Right after Rickey Henderson, a black baseball player, steals 130 bases, Bill James, a white guy, writes an article that devalues stolen bases.

One problem with the premise is that James doesn't argue against stolen bases. Sabermaticians like James, say instead, "Don't get caught." The generally accepted principle is, if you want to help your team, you need to get caught less than 30 percent of the time. Henderson, over the span of his career, has been caught only 20 percent of the time. That means he's helped create runs, not cost his team runs. A stolen base is worth, or so I'm told, .18 of a run. A caught stealing costs twice that. (Also, I should note that Henderson has a career OBP of .402, which makes him even more worthy of a roster spot on a Jamesean team).

The thing sabermaticians understand, and Wiley obviously does not, is that a baseball team gets only 27 outs. That makes them a finite and ever diminishing commodity. You want to avoid volunteering them to the enemy. Bases, on the other hand, contrary to Wiley, are a replenishable resource. So long as you haven't used up all of your outs, you can always get more bases. This makes outs much more valuable than bases.

As for Henderson's and Barry Bonds' treatment by the media -- Wiley compares their treatment with that of Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, forgetting that those three stars were just as reviled by their contemporaries as Bonds and Henderson today. It is only with the passage of time that we've elevated them to the pantheon of baseball gods and forgiven them their human frailties. Someday, we'll do the same for Henderson and Bonds (and personally, I already have). Of course, acknowledging that would leave Wiley without a column.

It's ironic that Wiley is writing his column about blacks not getting a fair break in a year when the most phenomenal rookie, Dontrelle Willis, is black. It is also a year when the number one and number two draft choices, Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks, are black.

Wiley actually gets around to discussing Weeks, but then blames racism in the lower levels of baseball for why Weeks had to go to an all-black college instead of a major baseball university. It apparently never crosses Wiley's mind that Weeks, like many, many college players, didn't really fill out and develop until after he started college. No, it must have been racism.

Of course, as we read on, we learn that this column isn't really about Rickey Henderson or Rickie Weeks, it's about Cole Wiley. It's about Cole's inability to succeed in baseball. In other words, it's all about a Dad's sour grapes.

I'm surprised ESPN would allow it's server space to be used for tripe inspired by nothing more than bitterness.

Jul 16 16:00

Picture this

We've all had the experience of communicating with somebody over a period time and never seeing him or her face to face. Soon, we develop a mental picture of what that person looks like. It's sometimes shocking how wrong we were once we finally meet the guy.

Well, here's your chance to play this game and actually win something. Not much, but something.

Here's the contest: What Does Eric J. look like?


Hint: He doesn't have any fur.

Jul 15 16:00

Paradise blogging

Bob Benz is blogging from Jamaica, where apparently they have large almonds, strong drinks and persnickety servants who don't relate to white liberal guilt. He's even got moving pictures (QuickTime).

Jul 15 16:00

The game that shouldn't have mattered

garrett andersonWhich league is better -- the American League or the National League?

Tonight, it's the American League, it seems. The AL beat the senior circuit tonight on a Hank Blalock two-run blow off Eric Gagne, 7-6. That means, the AL is better, right?

Well, not according to Clay Davenport and Nate Silver. Based on their analysis, it's not surprising that NL teams beat AL teams in interleague play at a rate of 54 percent.

Does one game, granted a game filled with most of the sport's best players, really erase the trend?

Any statistician will tell you, one event is too small of a sample size.

Yet, this was the most important game All Star Game in the mid-season classic's history. This time, as the teevee spots reminded repeatedly, it mattered. Home-field advantage in the 2003 World Series now belongs to the American League.

In a sport beset by lousy rules (the designated hitter, for example), cheating players, competitive imbalance, and too much player-owner strife, the best idea Commissioner Bud Selig had was to make the All Star Game "matter."

Never mind that conceivably, one or both teams who will make it to the WS only had one player in the ASG, or that neither the AL or the NL manager are likely to even make it to the post season this year. Never mind that the two managers who do make to that magical final series had no control over the outcome of this game. Never mind that both teams were forced to take on less deserving players under game rules (Rondell White, Mike Williams, Dmitri Young, Lance Carter) while some of this year's best players were left at home (Milton Bradley, Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Aubrey Huff, Todd Walker, Lance Berkman Orlando Cabrera, Sidney Ponson, Brandon Webb).

Never mind all that -- this game mattered.

It's a shame that it did.

Jul 15 16:00

The madness of Ken Layne

On July 3, Ken Layne told us he was going on blogging vacation.

Since then, he's made 11 posts, which was about his normal output before the "vacation," and he's released a CD.

Some vacation.

If he were a Republican, I'm sure Democrats.com would be pushing an anti-Layne petition by now.

Jul 12 16:00

Bad day

This is starting out as a bad day -- this e-mail account that I have and use for most of my personal corrospondance now, I've been able to keep it spam free for a year. Today, the first ever spam arrived to this address.  It's only a matter of time, I suppose, before more than 100 pieces a day start arriving, just like all my other accounts.

Just for the record: There is no lower form of life in the universe than a spammer.

Jul 10 16:00

If your mother says she loves you, get a second source

There is a lesson they don't seem to teach in J-school these days, at least as forcefully as they should -- if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Doug Thompson seems to have learned this lesson the hard way.

Reporters sometimes fall into these traps because they're too gullible when chasing the next big scoop. They care too much about the big story and not enough about the truth.

If that ever changes, we'll all be better served.

Jul 10 16:00

The King of Mambo

prez -- prez pradoMy favorite record store has been sold. The Record Outlet is now Grady's.

The store, at least, is in good hands. Grady is young, energetic, responsible and knows music. (Name dropping aside, his sister is Olympic runner Marla Runyon.)

I bought four LPs in there today. The one I most want to tell you about is "Prez" by Prez Prado.

Prado is a guy who's music should be in the collection of every latin music lover, and if you don't love latin music, you will if you listen to a few Prez Prado tracks. He was the true Mambo King of the 1950s. He really had an ear for great arrangements, infective melodies and lively tempos. Besides, his trademark grunts are half the fun.

Predo is best know for the hits "Mambo No. 5," "Cherry Pink And Apple Blossom White," and "Patricia." His best songs are punctuated by bright, shinny slithery horns. "Prez" has no shortage of brass parts that are downright greasy.

My favorite Prado LP, though, remains "Exotic Suite." I mention it with a high "buy" recommendation.

Also in today's bargains from Grady's was Chet Atkins "Finger-Style Guitar" and "Workshop." Two of Chet's classics.

It's always cool to find great old LPs.

Note: Grady just bought the Ventura location of Record Outlet. K.C. retains the Thousand Oaks location.

Jul 08 16:00

Resistence is futile

Blogs can't get much more mainstream than this.

Jul 08 16:00

Ryan Adams is weeping and Steve Earle is retiring ...

Small children are freightened by it. Islamists are denouncing it. Commies are switching sides to get it. Women in birkenstocks are marching against it. And Real men have already bought it.

Jul 08 16:00

Cool Site of the Day

What did your team wear when? Find out in the Baseball Uniform Database.

As far as I'm concerned, the Padres never looked better than they did in 1970.

Jul 07 16:00

Plug and play

I would love to interview Pete Townshend. The resulting article would practically write itself. (Hat tip to Doug Brunk)

Jul 07 16:00

Moses Wine slowing down

My friends who are friends and fans of Roger L. Simon probably won't like David Kipen's review of his latest novel.

Jul 03 16:00

Baseball, at the turn

Have you taken a look at the baseball standings recently? It's going to be a hot summer. Every division remains competitive, usually with at least three teams contending.

In the National League West, only the Padres can really be written off. With Colorado's pitching doing better than expected, and their high-powered offense, being 8 games out in July hardly puts the Rockies out of contention. The likely winner will be the Giants, but if the Dodgers add some hitting, they could make a serious run at first. Even Arizona, thanks largely to a spate of overperforming rookies, is looking strong.

The NL Central has three teams within a half of game of each other (St. Louis, Chicago and Houston), while Cincinnati is only three games out. Granted, the Reds, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee (the Brewers especially) probably don't have the talent to make a serious bid for first, the division remains tight from top to bottom.

You might assume that Atlanta is running away with the NL East, but both the Phillies and the Expos both have the fire power to make a charge, and you can't completely discount the Marlins at this point.

The American League is just as tight.

The West, like the NL East, is seemingly dominated by one team (Seattle), but Oakland and Anaheim are terribly talented and the Mariners should feel comfortable.

Kansas City is a huge surprise in the Central and may be too young of a team to hold onto their present lead, but the real blow to KC's aspirations was Chicago's acquistion of Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett. Minnesota still has the talent to run away with the division, though.

The AL East is probably just a two horse race (New York and Boston), but Baltimore and Toronto, playing Beaneball, are proving pesky and just won't go away.

At this point, I'm picking San Francisco, St. Louis and Atlanta in the NL, and Seattle, Chicago and New York in the AL, with the Phillies and Oakland grabbing wildcard spots. The series will most likely be Atlanta and New York. The all dark horse series would be Expos and Kansas City, but wouldn't a Chicago vs. Chicago series be great?

Jul 02 16:00

Sizing up the Dodgers

la dodgersSorry to my baseball buddies -- I only had two tickets for tonight's game, and the wife wanted to go.

Lots of talk on the talk radio coming home, both on Padres Talk and something on 690 called the SoCal Baseball Report (but rather than SoCal baseball, it's more like Dodger Baseball with a passing nod to Anaheim) ... the talk is along the lines of the Dodgers suck and needs some trades to fix them. Even the Padres fans are jumping on that bandwagon.

The guys on the SoCal show are pure Dan Evans (Dodger GM) apologists -- the line goes, he's a good GM, he knows how to make good deals, even though he says he's not making any trades, he's got something up his sleeve. It's an undying faith and a mantra to these guys.

But look at the team Evans built, or inherited and allowed to fester -- no offense, no bench, few prospects. He brought in Fred McGriff, failed to dump Adrian Beltre, thinks too highly of Brian Jordan and did nothing about the worst hitting middle infield combo in baseball.

Sure, the Dodgers have great pitching. I picked them initially to contend on the strength of their pitching, and currently they are contenders, but pitching can't carry a team all season. At some point, the starters will slump, and when they do, if the offense can't pick up the slack, a tailspin will ensue. I predict the Dodgers will suffer through brutal August, and it will include at least one 9- or 10-game losing streak. That is, unless they ad some bats.

And bats could be had. Luis Castillo would help a lot at 2B. Jose Guillen should be the Dodgers LF. Ivan Rodriguez could probably be pried away from Florida, which would allow Paul Lo Duca to move to 1st, thereby improving the team defensively at two positions and upgrading the overall offense five fold.

I'm not sure what the Dodgers would have to pay to make all that happen, and the paper thin minors might make it impossible, but Dodger fans aren't out of line to wish Evans would do something, anything to improve this offense. It would be a shame to waste the kind of pitching they have.

Of course, I'm a Padres fan, so my real hope is that Evans does absolutely nothing.

You know what's really going to burn the butts of Dodger fans? If Kevin Towers makes a pre-deadline deal to bring a solid offensive contributor for the Padres, and Evans does nothing. Towers might do it to. He wants to put together a winning second half to build momentum moving into the new stadium. If that happens, Dodger fans will really need to ask -- how can a division rival who isn't even a contender get better and the Dodgers can't? (That's assuming the Dodgers don't make a deal, and I'm betting they won't).

Speaking of Lo Duca and his defense ... he made too bad plays tonight -- both times he had the ball well advance of the arriving runner, and both times he failed to block the plate and missed that tag. I don't see how you go through the minor league system, make it to the majors as a starting catcher and still can't block the plate.

OK, enough ragging on the Dodgers, I'm off to bed.

Jul 01 16:00

It's an epidemic of idiocy

SARS seems to be having more of a profound effect on Toronto than previously thought. Apparently, it's doing more than causing respiratory problems, raising temperatures and threatening lives -- it's also making the city's journalists terminally stupid.

Jun 30 16:00

Trying to build a winner

This was a big week for the Pierpont JDAMs of the Original Gold Coast League.

You probably don't care about any of this, but I want to write about it anyway.

The JDAMs are my fantasy team in a deep NL-only league. This is one of three leagues I'm in, but this is the only one that costs serious money, pays winners, and has a large pool of keepers, so I take this league pretty seriously. I'm trying to build a winner. I joined the league, which was established in 1984, and was handed a crappy team that's never won.

My strategy is to stock up on as many kids as possible and shun veterans.

To that end, this was fire sale week. I made four trades, dumping four old guys and getting younger players, and mostly players that I want.

Here is my new roster and information on each player:

Sean Casey, 1B -- Acquired in an off season trade right after I took over the team. I forget now who I gave up to get him. Casey is a good hitter without a lot of power. I'm leaning toward keeping him because there are few good first basemen available, and few coming up through the minors.

Bo Hart, 2B -- Waiver claim. He's been setting the NL on fire the last two weeks. He's always been a decent hitter in the minors, but nothing like he's been recently. My knock on him is that he strikes out more than he walks. That is warning sign that he may not pan out. It's unclear if he's going to keep his job with St. Louis once some injured players return, but for now, I'm enjoying the ride.

Barry Larkin, SS -- Acquired in the draft. When he's healthy, he's decent, but he's at the end of his career. I haven't traded him because he has no trade value. When Ramon Vazquez returns from the DL, I'll probably waive Larkin.

Morgan Ensberg, 3B -- Acquired in a trade for Shane Reynolds. Ensberg is a potential stud. He should hit for power and average. He's also solid defensively. The only problem is, for some reason, Houston manager Jimmy Williams wants to platoon him with Geoff Blum, who's a total stiff.

Mark Loretta, CI -- I've always liked Loretta. He just hits. He gets on base. He's not an RBI guy or Run guy or even SB guy, but good fantasy teams benefit when they have roster fillers like Loretta, because while Loretta doesn't contribute a lot, he doesn't hurt you either.

Matt Kata, MI -- Waiver claim. Kata is putting up some good numbers with Arizona right now. One of a number of surprising rookies that are helping Arizona win. The D'backs have a spate of injuries to veterans, so Kata is probably headed back to the minors in a couple of weeks when the veterans return, but if I have room on my minor roster when he's sent down, I can squirrel him away.

Russell Branyan, Util. -- Waiver claim. Branyan was considered a stud prospect at one time, but has never worked out. He's also young and hasn't completely worn the luster off his prospect label. He strikes out too much, and is on a team where too many guys strike out too much, which could hurt his numbers, but as a last place team, my JDAMs can take a chance on him.

Mike Matheny, C -- Draft. No takers in trade offers. Matheny is a decent hitting catcher. He won't be a keeper for me, but I'll probably ride out the season with him on my roster, unless some kid comes along that I want more.

Todd Pratt, C -- Waiver claim. I picked Pratt up this week as best of available options after trading Benito Santiago. Roster filler is all Pratt is.

Xavier Nady, OF -- Trade (Jose Reyes). I worked hard to get Nady. He was my number one acquisition goal all season. Potential stud outfielders are hard to come by, and prior to this week, my OF was looking dismal. Also, I need some guys with power potential. Nady shows good plate discipline and his hold his own at the major league level despite being rushed. Nady should work out well. I traded Oliver Perez (who I hated to give up) and Rod Beck to get Reyes so I could get Nady for Reyes.

Scott Podsednik, OF -- Trade (Ray Durham) A product of the Oakland A's farm system, he was never considered an A-list prospect, but he's proving to be a late bloomer. He has speed and is hitting for average. I originally claimed him on waivers, saw him lose playing time, so dropped him. The next week he was handed Milwaukee's starting center field job. I hated trading to get him back, but he was a throw in in a larger deal.

Miguel Cabrera, OF -- Minor league draft. Cabrera was my number one pick this spring. He's had the potential stud label since he was 16. He's now 20. He's Mike Lowell's eventual replacement at 3B, but for now Flordia has him playing LF.

Stephen Smitherman, OF -- Waiver claim. Smitherman was called up just yesterday from AA. He has good minor league numbers, but isn't likely to play much. He'll be sent down in a week or two. In the meantime, I can maybe reserve him. You'll be able to see him in the All-Star Futures game.

Raul Gonzalez, OF -- Waiver claim. Just called up by the Mets. He should be in their starting outfield. He has put up great minor league numbers and has an outstanding K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the Mets don't seem to value him as they should, which is a shame, because the Mets really need the OF help.

Dontrelle Willis, P -- Waiver claim. This guy is the phenom of the summer. If he stays healthy, he's going to dominate for a long time.

Adam Eaton, P -- Trade (Mark Prior). Eaton is just coming off Tommy John surgery, but he has great stuff. He projects as a low ERA high strikeout guy with good control.

Brian Lawrence, P -- Trade (Armanis Ramirez). Not working out as well this season as I would like, but still a good pitcher worth holding onto. He's got the stuff to become an eventual Cy Young winner.

Vicente Padilla, P -- Trade (Mark Prior). Another young pitcher with great stuff who should be a major contributor for several seasons.

Aaron Heilman, P -- Minor league draft. Just called up. Good outing last Thursday. Great stuff. Ground ball pitcher. He should be a 20-game winner at some point. He was the Met's number one draft pick a couple of years ago.

Oscar Villarreal, P -- Waiver claim. Young kid with good stuff, but more of a roster filler, unless he gets a bigger roll in Arizona at some point.

Brian Fuentes, P -- Waiver claim. If Jose Jimenez losing his closer job in Colorado, Fuentes is his potential replacement.

Paul Shuey, P -- Waiver claim. Roster filler.

Denny Neagle, P -- Waiver claim. Roster filler.

In the Minors, I have:

Johnny Estrada, C -- Waiver claim. He was up for a short stay this season, forcing the owner who drafted him to cut him (or lose one of his established catchers), so I grabbed him before he got sent back down. He should be the Braves starting catcher next season.

David Kelton, OF -- Trade (Brad Nelson). Here I traded a good first base prospect for an OF prospect, but he OF prospect is much closer to being an everyday major leaguer (probably next year).

Garrett Atkins, 3B -- Draft. He's ripping the cover off the ball at Colorado Springs, and should be a much better option for the Rookies than Chris Stynes, yet he isn't getting the call up.

Jose Castillo, SS -- Draft. The Pirates could call on Castillo to play 2B this year, but if not, he should be the starting SS next year. Castillo is a potential five tool guy and I like him better than Jose Reyes.

Chad Tracy, 3B -- Trade (Kenny Lofton and Steve Traschel). Tracy should be in the major now. He's a better hitter than Shea Hillibrand, but the D'Back's acquisition of Hillibrand may be blocking Tracy's advancement now. Still, he has a great K/BB ratio, which is why I traded for him.

Brandon Larsen, 2B -- Trade (Eric Young, Benito Santiago). He strikes out too much, but since the Reds are moving him to 2B, it increases his value. He lost his starting 3B job earlier this season, but he's been making good progress at AAA.

Jason Marquis, P -- Waiver claim. At one time, a highly regard prospect. Apparently, there's no room for him in the Braves rotation right now, but he's been lights out at AAA.

John Vanbenschoten, P -- Trade (Ray Durham). Great, great prospect. He could be in the Pirate's rotation next year, but probably two years away.

Jun 30 16:00

Rock and roll ain't noise pollution

angus youngCDs in the mail today. It was time to order something from Columbia House. CH doesn't have the greatest selection for a guy with my eclectic taste, but it's good for finding loud, snotty crap to annoy the neighbors with.

Today's arrivals:

AC/DC, Back In Black: Listening to it now. I shouldn't like this heavy metal dreck, but I can't stop myself. I adore this album. I had it when it originally came out, and it was a guilty pleasure way back then, too. Angus Young is the best riff maker this side of Keith Richards. This remastered CD is so crystal clear. What can I say, it rocks.

AC/DC, Highway to Hell: I've never owned this, but I figured it was another classic must-have, and so long as I was rotting my soul with Satan's Minons, I might as well go all the way.

Meat Loaf, Bat Out of Hell: I bought this LP when it first game out. I've always loved "Paradise by the Dashboard Light." It's a true classic, in the class of "Stairway to Heaven", "Cocaine", "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "Day in the Life."

Pink Floyd, Dark Side of the Moon: This is the fourth copy of this album I've own. The first was an eight-track my brother gave me when it first game out. Later, I got my own LP, lost that. Then three years ago, my wife got me the CD for Christmas, and my step-son lost that. OK, this isn't one you play loud and it won't have your neighbors calling Officer Opey, but if you don't have a copy of DSOTM in your collection, your collection is incomplete.

Jun 30 16:00

Gloating (because there are so few things to gloat about this season)

Andrew, didn't we have a bet on the Mariners-Padres season series or something?

Jun 29 16:00

Surfing with the king

dick daleI don't particularly enjoy going to a concert and seeing a band play the same songs I can hear on their CDs, in the same fasion, in a paint-by-numbers set. The best shows is where the performers, well, perform. Where they put on a show. Where they entertain.

Dick Dale, as I discovered tonight is a performer, an entertainer, and he's also one of the best damn guitarists you'll ever see. He knows the fretboard than most men know their own dicks. He doesn't just pluck notes, he brings them to life. And he obviously has so much fun doing it. Dale doesn't just confine himself to a corner of the stage. He uses the whole theater, playing to the entire audience, making sure everybody has a good time, from the oldest to the youngest.

We're just back from his 2-hour+ show at the Majestic Ventura Theater. It was a real treat. He gave all he had, and the audience ate it up. The man even plays trumpet better than a lot of guys who make a living doing just that.

This is what we did tonight for my wife's birthday. It was a great night.

Jun 27 16:00

Blogging Sacramento

Among the fortunate events in my life was the day in 1976 that my parents moved me to El Cajon, Calif., two blocks from Grossmont High School.

It was fortunate because one of the teachers there was Geoff Anderson, the best journalism teacher (probably best ever) in San Diego County. I'm not making this up. Mr. Anderson's papers have won more journalism awards than any other in the county. For years I took it for granted that a high school journalism education taught all the basics of news gathering and writing. I was shocked when I became editor of my college paper and found that every freshman we tried to put on the staff couldn't write. They didn't know the first thing about news style. That's when I realized what a good education I got from Mr. Anderson, and I was, at best, a half-ass student.

Daniel Weintraub is among the best newsmen covering California politics. Weintraub is also a former student of Mr. Anderson (about two years ahead of me, so we didn't know each other in high school, though we met later). Now he has a blog. You should check it out, especially if you're a cal-poli fanatic (link found thanks to Dean Esmay).

Jun 27 16:00

Is your web raw?

Webraw is a year old. Go give Eric J. a high-five.

Jun 26 16:00

Big D Fever

dontrelle willisTonight's big event was the Marlins vs. Mets game. Two of my rookie fantasy pitchers, Dontrelle Willis and Aaron Heilman. Heilman, a second round minor league draft choice for me, was making his major league debut. He gave up only 1 earned run and mostly had Marlins pounding the ball into the ground, which is what I wanted to see.

But this post is really about Dontrelle Willis. If you haven't heard of Willis yet, you must not follow sports. Willis is now 8-1 and the biggest phenom since Nomo. With a goofy, but determined grin and a funky delivery, he's already a fan favorite in Florida and starting to catch on nationally.

After posting a 24-5 career record at A ball and AA, Willis is now 8-1 in the majors. Going back to last July, he is 20-1 as a pro. His career minor league ERA is 2.31. He's 2.54 as a major league pitcher.

If you're going to beat Willis, you want to do it early in the count. Opponents are hitting .429 against him on 21 first pitches. Surprisingly , 0n 0-1, they have a .750 SLG. In all other pitchers' counts, Willis is dominating, holding batters to under .100. In all hitters' counts, batters have at least a .300 average, including a .529 average on 2-1 with a 1.412 OPS. That's an amazing disparity. Fortunately, Willis usually pitches ahead in the count.

Willis also seems to get strong as the game goes on. Hitters have a .280 average against the Big D in innings 1-3, and are hitting .182 in subsequent innings.

Add to all this a 55/18 K/BB ratio, and you feel compelled to believe Willis is the real deal.

Watching him -- and I usually don't like to watch my prospects on TV anymore -- Willis seems fearless. No matter what the situation, he continues to attack hitters, pitching aggressively, maybe even too aggressively at times (as witnessed by his 1.400 OPS with a runner on third). By all accounts, Willis is a good kid (he's 21) with a good head, optimistic, enthusiastic and big hearted. Those traits should help him weather the growing media attention.

One of the ironies about Willis is that in an age when more and more major league general managers are shying away from drafting high school pitchers, Willis never pitched an inning of college ball. The Cubs took him straight out of HS in 2001.

Yeah, I like Willis. I'm glad I have him on two of my three fantasy teams (most importantly, my deep keeper league), and it was a total brain cramp that caused me to not pick him up in my third league.

Jun 26 16:00

Jose "Fluke" Lima

Jose LimaIs there any reason to hope that Jose Lima might win some games in Kansas City?

Joe Posnanski thinks so. Now with a 2-0 start and an ERA of 3.44 is doing better after re-emerging as a major leaguer than anybody expected.

Lima says he's no fluke. His career stats say other wise. Even in his best years, it looks like he survived more on luck than skill. Horrible OPSs, too many walks. How does a guy who lets 3 of 10 batters reach first base win 20 games? Probably by pitching in the Astro Dome. Unfortunately, the ESPN site doesn't supply his splits for the 1999 season, but I suspect they would show he was much more effective at home than on the road. (I just found this page, which shows Lima's Astro Dome career ERA is 2.90. In no other stadium where he's pitched at least 40 innings, is his ERA even close to being that low. Pretty damning evidence.)

Still, pitchers who develop new pitches, sometimes defy the odds, because they become new pitchers. It will be interesting to see how Lima progresses this season. Former 20 game winners always bear watching. Not that I'll add him to any of my fantasy rosters any time soon.

Jun 26 16:00

Read this book

Why should you read Michael Lewis' Moneyball?

Because Lewis humanizes the sometimes dry subject of sabermetrics, the art and science of baseball statistical analysis?

Or maybe it's because Lewis helps readers understand how the Oakland A's have not only used sabermetrics to build a better baseball team, but have extended and innovated the field?

Or maybe you'd like to get a good behind the scenes view of how a major league ball club wheels and deals.

Maybe you're just an Oakland A's fan.

Possibly, you're a less knowledgeable major league GM and you dislike Billy Beane and you figure this book will give you more ammo to ridicule him with.

All of these reasons are good reasons to read Moneyball.

But the real reason you should read Moneyball is it's a damn good book. In the world of literary journalism, Moneyball must be considered one of the classics. It reads more like a collection of short stories than a non-fiction book on baseball. If this book doesn't win a Pulitzer Prize this year, they should stop giving out the award because it will be meaningless.

What makes the book great is the stories Lewis weaves about the subjects of his book, from Billy Beane, the all-athlete, all-tools phenom without a clue of how to become a real big leaguer, to Scott Hatteberg and Chad Bradford -- cases off from other organizations who play the game at a level of sophistication beyond the reach of 90 percent of other major leaguers.

There are two ways to become a great ballplayer -- have great tools and the discipline to exploit those tools, or you play with your head. Hatteberg and Bradford play smart baseball, though Bradford's head is also his biggest enemy, as Lewis brings out in deep and powerful prose. My favorite parts of the book dealt with Hatteberg and Bradford, especially the way Lewis weaved Bradford's story around Oakland's quest last season for 20-straight victories.

This is one of those books that I wanted to read non-stop. If I didn't have adult responsibilities, I would have read it all within 24 hours of getting it -- without sleeping. I haven't done that with a book since college, and that's why you should buy this book.

Jun 24 16:00

Fishing for rookies

If you're like me, which you probably aren't, and mired in last place in an NL-only fantasy league, you're looking at the wires for young players who might help you a little this year, but more in the future.

Here's my quick scouting report on AAA NL-affiliated teams.

Name OBP SLG HR RBI Runs BB Ks
Chad Tracy - 3B .468 .390 5 42 58 26 23
Johnny Estrada - C .405 .515 6 40 25 18 18
Dave Kelton - OF .364 .449 8 31 30 28 58
Ryan Freel - 2B .366 .432 2 9 25 12 12
Brandon Larson - 3B .376 .574 10 38 31 14 45
Garrett Atkins - 3B .384 .529 12 53 54 22 35
Val Pascucci - OF .442 .442 7 42 39 60 67
Terrmel Sledge - OF .432 .560 12 48 48 43 50

Notes: With the acquistion of Shea Hillibrand, who isn't nearly as good a hitter as Chad Tracy, Arizona has seemingly delayed Tracy's arrival in the major leagues. Johnny Estrada is the Braves catcher of the future, just not this year, especially with Javier Lopez having a breakout season. But Lopez will be gone by next season and Estrada will finally get the opportunity he deserves at the ML level. David Kelton was supposed to be the Cubs 3B of the future, but they've been trying to convert him to LF (replacing Moises Alou) and bidding for Flordia's Mike Lowell. Kelton's AAA numbers look good and if Alou goes down, look for him to get another shot at the bigs. Ryan Freel failed to win a starting job with the Reds earlier, but he's still a prospect and may get another shot. Of course, he's way may be blocked by Brandon Larson. Larson, a converted 3B, could be handed the starting 2B job soon. Larson strikes out a lot, but the Reds seem to like players who strike out a lot. That's bad baseball, but not necessarily bad fantasy ball. Garett Atkins -- one question, why isn't he already the starting 3B in Denver? It's not like they have a better option (Chris Stynes, Greg Norton) there now. Val Pascucci is an enigma -- he's an OBP machine, but he strikes out more than he walks. Always has. But he has good power numbers. But it's not likely that the Expos will give both him and Terrmel Sledge a shot at a starting job this year, and the edge for that honor has got to be given to Sledge.

P.S.: In my own league, I control Estrada, Atkins and Kelton. Larson, Freel and Tracy are controlled by other Owners. Since I'm in last, if any of these other guys get called up, they're mine. I'm waiting for Sledge cause I need OF help most of all. Besides, how can you pass up a guy named Terrmel Sledge?

P.P.S: I'm disappointed to have so many guys with poor K/BB ratios, but you take what you can get. There are precious few legitimate prospects (meaning likely to get promoted) who have good plate discipline. I'll probably try to acquire Larson, even though he is a strike out machine.

Jun 24 16:00

More on Luster

The L.A. Times and other news organizations got scooped bad when Ventura County Star reporter Aron Miller secured Drew Luster's notebook at the hotel he had been hiding at recently, so it isn't surprising that the Times would try smearing Miller:

On Saturday, a Star reporter fished a notebook from a trash can at Luster's motel in Puerto Vallarta, motel manager Oscar Lopez told the Associated Press. Motel staff later threw out the notebook, Lopez said.
I happen to have it on good authority that the motel manager gave Miller access to the hotel room where he found the notebook. It wasn't in the trash, but neither the AP nor the LAT bothered to verify the facts. They just printed the claim without question. And they should have questioned. If Miller had the notebook, why was it up to Lopez to discard it? If you found a notebook in the trash, would you keep it, throw it out yourself or give it to the hotel manager to throw out? I mean, there is a disconnect between Lopez's claim that Miller found the notebook in the trash and that the hotel staff later threw it out themselves. Yet, neither the Times nor AP bothered to question Lopez about this discrepency. Of course, it's really a minor matter in the larger scheme of things, but I find it rather slimy of the times to smear another journalist on just an unimportant matter -- a matter that could easily have been left out of the story if they couldn't confirm it. It only matters because it contradicts Miller's version of events, not because there would have been anything wrong with Miller or any other reporter retreiving the notebook from the trash. Miller's a good, honest reporter. If he said he found the notebook in Luster's room, that's where he got it. Still, the Times did a good job on its story about Luster's hiding the last few months. Of course, the FBI, which has whined about bounty hunter Duane Chapman's handling of the case, didn't bungle it:
The couple first contacted the FBI, Labanauskas said, but were frustrated by the response. They then contacted Duane Lee "Dog" Chapman, the bounty hunter who had publicly vowed to find the fugitive. But with only vague information, Chapman was not that interested, Labanauskas said.

On June 8, the couple called their hosts in Mexico, asking Labanauskas and Rains to take a look at the "most wanted" list on the FBI's Web site.

Under Andrew Luster's name, Carrera's face stared back.

"I was 100% sure it was him," Labanauskas said.

Why am I not surprised the FBI was slow to respond on a tip about the whereabouts of a convicted rapist?