The Net rewrote the rules for books, music and travel. Business week says six more industries are ripe for the picking: jewelry, bill payments, telecom, hotels, real estate, and software.

Contradicting my speculation, Phillip Swann says Tivo will not die.

Meanwhile, Gordon over at Venturepenuer links to one of my posts on Google, and I still say from a business standpoint, Google would probably be better off remaining a private company.

I’m pretty happy with how the Padres (13-9) are doing so far this season. But the other bad team gone good story this year is Detroit. I thought I would take a look at their roster and maybe do a post on why … but then I looked at Alex Sanchez’s stats.

Can you answer this question? Maybe Matt Welch can. How do you get an OBP that is LOWER than your batting average?

As I write this, Sanchez is hitting .350 after 60 ABs. His OBP is .344. He has no walks. But still … a lower OBP?

Sanchez is about as anti-moneyball player as you can find. Only 3 SBs, and he’s been caught twice. Only 12 runs scored and 7 RBI. Sabermatric types don’t get too worked up over Ks, but I do. Sanchez has struck out 15 times.

The Tigers are 12-9. I wonder how many wins Sanchez has cost his team?

If I were a Google rival, I would be praying everyday that the company would issue an IPO.

Being a publicly traded company doesn’t outright kill innovation, but it creates powerful currents against it, along with a host of pressures to take short cuts to profits.

I actually think going public is a huge mistake for Google. They don’t need the cash infusion. I don’t see what Google has to gain by an IPO.

For Google watchers, Business Week has three worthwhile pieces. Start here, then here, then here.

I think I like the company-line answer on whether it would be fair for Microsoft to bundle search with the desktop? “We don’t have an opinion on that. Search is a very big space.”

I think these guys are very smart about the nature of competition. It isn’t about monopolies or leveraged advantages. It’s about understanding your customers, the jobs they want to get done, and coming up with better solutions. Google will compete with Microsoft just fine, I predict, regardless of what Microsoft does. I don’t expect to see Google dragging Bill Gates into court.

One other thought: I don’t understand all of this hand wringing about Gmail. It’s ain’t a privacy issue. If you sign up for a service to that scans your mail, you’ve knowingly surrendered that corner of your private world. It’s you’re choice, and it’s none of the damn business of privacy advocates if you make that choice. This is about the biggest non-controversy on the Web since Netscape introduced the FONT tag.

If that’s still not enough Google for you, here’s more Google news from Google News.

You know, I’ve never been able to decide when to date the beginning of this blog. Was it April 14, 2002 when I made my first post — but was available only on my desktop while I still developed the site? Or was it a week later when I finally went public.

Either way, I’ve been at this infernal addiction for two years now.

Where Apple built a better computer, but lost out to more modular and less expensive IBM-compatible machines, Tivo’s superior user experience may not be able to hold off the lower-price and convinience consumers get when they sign up for DVR service from their existing cable companies. A great user interface, as Apple learned, isn’t enough to stave off competition at a lower price point.

There are some signs that Tivo execs understand this, but is it too late for Tivo to move away from a properietary software model? Some investors think so.

To put this in the terms of Clayton Christensen, where Tivo has been a disruptive technology relative to traditional television, the cable companies are disruptive to Tivo with a “good enough” service at an attractive price. For the cable companies, it’s also a sustaining business model — improving service for its best customers. And as Christensen would note — established companies win sustaining battles with start ups every time.

Apple survived serving a niche market and with a cult aura. But there could also be some very different dynamics at play. For example, there is no evil empire gunning for Tivo the way Microsoft went after Apple, so the Tivo cult may not be as energized, and therefore more readily switch to another product when other services eventually become as good as Tivo. On the other end, nobody ever “Mac’d” a spreadsheet they way consumers “Tivo’d” “The West Wing.” The word “Tivo” may have permenantly entered our lexicon for DVRing in a way that will survive the company. Unfortunately, there’s no money in a great brand name if there’s no product to leverage it.

Through the last several weeks of my limited posting, there were many evenings where I felt tempted to run to the computer and post my thoughts on my new favorite show … American Idol.

This is the first season I’ve watched, and find that I do enjoy it. Simon Cowell is a really perceptive judge of talent, and it’s fun to watch these kids perform. The music isn’t always to my taste, but some of the finalist are incredibly talented and deserve a crack at stardom.

To my mind, there are four, and only four people in the final 12 who deserve a record contact. They are George Huff, LaToya London, Fantasia Barrino and Jennifer Hudson.

I got a kick out of Jon Peter Lewis, and I would cast him in a minute as a sitcom star, but not as a pop singer. Early on, I rooted for John Stevens because he was a good looking kid with a taste for old time music. But it didn’t take me long to realize he is no future Frank Sinatra or Dean Martin. He isn’t even a Mel Torme. Steven’s is the next Jack Jones or Perry Como. He is a Steve Lawrence in search of and Edie Gorme. He should have been voted off the show weeks ago, yet he lingers.

Apparently, the sub-13 girls are keeping him in a sports coat and penny loafers.

If it was simply a matter of keeping John on until the final five, when the real talent is left, I would simply shrug.

But tonight, I watched this week’s shows … and was shocked to discover that not only was he NOT voted off … he wasn’t even in the bottom three.

The bottom three were the three best singers in the competition, London, Barrino and Hudson.

To put this in perspective a bit more … last week Barrino gave the best performance of the Gershwin classic “Summertime” that I’ve ever heard. It gave me chills, it was so good. My wife and I watched it three times. It was Billie Holiday or Etta James worthy. Yet, this week, even after another great performance, her she was, not only in the bottom three, but the bottom two.

The one voted out: Hudson, the one contestant who has gotten better with each performance.

It was hard not to conclude that some sort of racism was at play. How could lily white, subpar singer John Stevens beat out Jennifer Hundson? I can guarantee you that not one single idol voter who voted purely on talent considerations voted for John Stevens.

But the best explanation for what happened is those damn little girls.

Clearly, if American Idol is going to have any credibility going forward, something must be done to limit the voting and prevent clueless preteens from stuffing the ballot box. One site I read suggested requiring a fee to vote. Good idea. Frankly, I don’t have a better one, and I’m not sure it would work. But it might help.

If John Stevens wins this season, I may very well not bother with another Idol season. What would be the point?

The one saving grace is the comfort in knowing that all four of my favorites on the show will, at seasons end, have record contracts, and successful careers. They’re too good, and have gotten too much exposure from being on the show, not to move forward from here. But with so much talent, it must be galling to lose to somebody like Stevens. Even Stevens knows he doesn’t deserve to be there at this point … you can see it in his face every week after he survives another round of votes. He knows he’s not good enough to be on the Idol stage at this point. And next week, don’t be surprised if Simon doesn’t tell him that in even blunter terms.

More on the controversy here and here.

For fans of Innovator’s Solution, a blog.

I’m just starting to uncover the “innovator’s web” … seems like there’s a lot of good resources out there, and some interesting perspectives.

For those of you who don’t know what all this is about … think “Moneyball” for business geeks. There’s a lot of paralles between the two books … it’s all about efficiency, using information that matters (OBP — jobs people need done) and ignoring information that doesn’t (BA — technology for technology’s sake, i.e. CueCat), and relying very little on the professional, grey-beard scouts.

UDPATE: I’ve changed my mind a bit about the blog I link to above … though I initially found it based on a post about the book, and read some other stuff related to the book, digging further into it today, there’s a lot of stuff that is more “old scout” thinking than “moneyball” thinking on the blog, including a link to a really fuzzy-headed post from another blogger on how all future innovation is going to be driven by female-cultured, flat, collectivist teams.

I’m excited. My homestead is now wireless.

As I write, I’m in the living room with my new HP laptop connected to my Netgear wireless router. This isn’t my first wireles post, though. That honor belongs to post before last, about Kevin. That was made on a train between San Diego and Ventura using my SprintPCS Handspring Treo 300.

BTW: Now we know why the anti-war crowd was so upset when US troops allegedly protected the Oil Ministry. It stopped the records of bribe payments from being destroyed.

In San Diego this weekend … Saturday, saw my first game at Petco.

I’ve waited a long time for this stadium. Even before there was a Coors or a Camden, I thought the city should built a baseball only facility downtown.

Now that it’s there, I’m not disappointed. It’s a beautiful yard. Perfect for San Diego.

I took a whole bunch of picture.

Here’s a slide show. There are 24 shots in all.

Kevin Featherly and I have a long history … we met when he wanted to write for the Beacon, and I was co-publishing it. A few years later, when I left the Carlsbad Journal, I recommended him for my vacant position. He got. A year later, when a position opened up at the Daily Californian, I recommended him and he got the job. At that point, he started calling me The Godfather. He’s a great guy. One of the kindest people I’ve met in journalism. And smart, too. A little left of center, but that’s ok. I remember during the first Gulf War we got in a couple of arguments. That was the first time I ever took a pro-war stance, btw. At any rate, Kev is now a blogger.

I attended an Arena Football League game for the first time. I had four free tickets, but the only person I could con into going with me was Steve Smith.

All of you who turned me down, you didn’t miss much.

For the fast pace, AFL is an extremely boring sport. Nearly ever pass is a completion, nearly every possession a score and hardly anything ever goes wrong. There is little tension, and zero drama. About half-way through the second quarter, Smith and I retired to the Staple’s sports bar where he could watch his Dodgers and I could watch my Padres.

The bar was dead. In fact, the staff was busy closing up — no customers, they all go home.

We talked with one of the bar tenders about it, and he told us that the bar was usual dead during Avengers games, whereas when the Lakers are in the house, the bar is jumpin’. Funny, I thought, initially, it should be just the opposite.

But when I returned to my seat and looked at the people around me — obviously, not the LA elite, not the wealthy, but families and blue collar types, it struck me — the AFL appeals to the kind of crowd that spending their hard-earned money on a game ticket, they’re going to watch the game, and not waste $10 on a whisky sour.

I’ve been reading (actually, now, re-reading) a great book by Clayton Christensen called “The Innovator’s Solution.” It’s all about how entrepreneurs grow businesses — successful growth comes from finding a product or service that either isn’t available, but people want or need, or the available product or service is either too expensive or too inconvenient to use. Such products or services are called “disruptive innovations.”

When Southwest Airlines started their point-to-point flights at low costs, they introduced a disruptive innovation into the marketplace. Southwest wasn’t competing against bigger airlines. Southwest was competing against busses and cars. They were making airline travel for short trips cheaper and easier. That’s why the business grew so quickly.

The Arena Football League is also a low-end disruptor — selling a product to a class of people who want to enjoy live sports, but can’t afford NBA prices, and maybe find MLB a little slow.

The big mistake I see the AFL making though is being locked into deals were concession prices are outrageously high. The AFL could probably appeal to even more families if the price of four dogs and sodas was in the $10 to $12 range, instead of exceeding $25.

So far, Petco is playing like a pitchers park, and I couldn’t be happier.